Mar 26, 2008

Poll: Support for park bond on decline

Slide to 72 percent in favor of protecting open space blamed on an ailing economy

By Denis Cuff / Bay Area News Group

More than two-thirds of East Bay voters likely would vote for a proposed $500 million regional park bond measure, although support has eroded slightly because of the ailing economy, according to a new poll.

Seventy-two percent support a proposed November ballot measure to renew an East Bay Regional Park District property tax measure to buy and protect open space, and develop some park facilities, the February phone poll of 600 likely voters found.

That's a slip from the 76.5 percent support in late 2006 for a measure that would need a two-thirds majority to pass.

"The good news is we have a majority support," pollster G. Gary Manross of Strategy Research Institute told the park board last week. "The bad news is we dropped support."

In a written report, the polling company pinned the dip on pessimism over the economy. "The softening is due, almost entirely, to the economic slowdown over the past year."

More than half of voters told pollsters they think the economy is in a downturn, and 18 percent said it's in a recession.

Some 21 percent said the economy is strong but getting weaker. Only 6 percent said the economy is strong.

The margin of error for the poll was plus or minus 3 percent.

The park board will have another opinion poll taken in June just before it makes a final decision to put the bond measure on the ballot in Contra Costa and Alameda counties.

Pat O'Brien, the park district general manager, said he thinks the outlook for passing a bond remains good.

"The poll shows very significant support for the bond measure," O'Brien said. "It wasn't a very significant drop."

He said he was encouraged that most voters supported the tax extension even though 79 percent of those polled said they expect the economy to be "soft" or in a recession a year from now.

In the district's favor, O'Brien said, voters will be asked to extend an old tax rather than attempt to pass one for the first time.

The measure would renew the district's Measure AA, which passed in 1988. It gave the district authority to sell $225 million in bonds to buy and develop parks.

The park district used the money to acquire 34,000 acres, and create 17 new recreation areas and trails. With the money from that bond nearly gone, district officials want a new bond measure to buy and improve more park land.

The pollsters said the regional park district has strong name recognition: 92 percent of voters have heard of it.

The pollsters said they were encouraged by growing support for a bond measure in eastern Contra Costa County, an area that traditionally has weaker support for the park district.

Some 63 percent of East Contra Costa voters said last month they likely would vote for the bond measure, an increase from the 52 percent in late 2006.

Park board members have said they would allocate 25 percent of the $500 million in bond money to local cities and park districts for local parks. The other 75 percent would be spent to buy and develop regional parks.