Mar 20, 2008

How Pac-10 teams can feel good in The Dance

By Gordon Kass / Daily News Correspondent

It's time to dance with 64 stars in the NCAA tourney. Samba, tango or waltz - what do the next three weeks offer for our men's and women's Pac-10 teams? Let's evaluate the chances of all of them and note how much they need to accomplish to feel good.

On the men's side, six teams reached the tourney. Oregon probably didn't deserve it and excluded ASU should be here. On the women's side, just three made it but everyone could see that coming - only Stanford, Cal and ASU were due.



Pac-10 men's hoops

UCLA: Needs to reach the Final Four to feel good. Bruins have the desired geographic stroll through Anaheim and Phoenix to get to the desired F4. Minimal travel, familiar locations, fan support. And the opponent list is not daunting (Mississippi Valley State, Texas A&M or BYU, Connecticut, Duke or Xavier). An earlier exit would be disappointing. Don't be surprised if the Bruins win the whole tournament, but a loss to a top team in the F4 would not be a crusher. In the national semifinals, UCLA might meet Texas (great chance for payback for UT's earlier win) or Memphis (recall how Ben Howland outcoached John Calipari in the Western Region final in Oakland two years ago). The national title game would likely be against the Kansas-North Carolina winner, and that team would have an emotional hurdle after winning the "Roy Williams is my coach/your coach" sweepstakes. (Williams left Kansas for UNC a few years ago.)

Stanford: Needs to reach the Sweet 16 to feel good. Stanford should rip Cornell and then outbattle Marquette to make the second weekend. Anything less would be a profound disaster. The Cardinal has the potential to go further but opponents like Texas and Memphis in the South Region's last two rounds are brutal and a loss would not be painful. Yet Lopez Incorporated could go further and see the F4.

Washington State: Needs to reach the Sweet 16 to feel good. WSU's desires are based on a talented team that did not quite get so far last year and has one more shot with this crew (and will coach Tony Bennett leave someday soon for greener pastures?). The draw is not simple. Winthrop will go down, but Notre Dame is not easy. WSU can handle the Irish, and then it's all gravy, but the Cougs are limited in their upside.

USC: Needs to reach the Sweet 16 to feel good. SC is a great dark horse but the Trojans' road has hurdles. First, a super matchup for O.J.Mayo and friends against Kansas State and their freshman sensation Michael Beasley. Then, it's Wisconsin in a style contrast - yet don't forget USC led the Pac-10 in defense. After that, it's uncharted waters for Tim Floyd's team. They could certainly surprise Georgetown, though Kansas in the region final is likely too tough.

Arizona: Needs to win first game to feel good. Folks debated Zona's inclusion in the tourney so a victory by the 10th-seeded (in the West) Cats over seventh-seeded West Virginia in the first round would be a good sign. Upsetting second-seeded Duke might be too tall an order for this erratic squad, though it's not out of the question.

Oregon: Needs to win first game to feel good. Ducks would love to top Mississippi State but haven't shown they can do it, and they lack everything needed to make a longer run. That would be emphatically stamped in the second game, when the opponent will be Memphis.



Pac-10 women's hoops

Stanford: Needs to reach the Final Four to feel good. F4 is a monkey on the Cardinal's back, but they can make it this year. The commotion about receiving a No. 2 seed instead of an expected and deserved No. 1 is baloney. Extra motivation? I think the tourney itself provides sufficient motivation. Do you think if Stanford received a No. 1 seed, they would play flat and be eliminated early but now they will be sharp every game and do better? I don't think so.

The key for Stanford is great geography. Playing the first two games at home and the next two in the closest location possible (Spokane) is the type of edge that teams use to advance far. Look for the Cardinal to whip Cleveland State and UTEP in Maples on the first weekend. The regional may involve a rematch with Baylor (but Stanford showed they're a much better team last time) and then a clash with top-seeded Maryland.

Cal: Needs to reach the Sweet 16 to feel good. Late-season struggles included another blowout loss to Stanford. But Cal gets to enjoy Bay Area geography in its first two games, and that will come in handy against San Diego and then George Washington. At that point, the pressure will be off, but the road is too tough as the Bears would next face Rutgers and Connecticut.

Arizona State: Needs to win first game to feel good. Devils struggled against top teams all year so they will be glad to get at least one win and that can come against 11th-seeded Temple. After that, it's third-seeded Duke, and that should end the Devils' tournament.



Pac-10 men's pics

Thursday-Friday: Stanford over Cornell by 16. UCLA over Mississippi Valley State by 26. Washington State over Winthrop by 14. USC over Kansas State by 8. Arizona over West Virginia by 6. Mississippi State over Oregon by 3.

Saturday-Sunday: UCLA over Texas A&M by 10. Stanford over Marquette by 4. Washington State over Notre Dame by 2. Wisconsin over USC by 6. Duke over Arizona by 6.



Pac-10 women's pics

Saturday-Sunday: Stanford over Cleveland State by 27. Cal over San Diego by 9. ASU over Temple by 7.

Monday-Tuesday: Stanford over UTEP by 16. Cal over George Washington by 5. Duke over ASU by 11.