Jan 17, 2008

All-Star status is elusive

Warriors' Davis is a lock, his teammates say, but many factors are working against him

By Carl Steward / MediaNews

Baron Davis has played some games this year where you could honestly believe he was the best basketball player on Earth. His body of work at guard, combining scoring, assists, steals, defense, quality minutes played and leadership, may be without peer in the known universe.

Davis should be an All-Star. Stephen Jackson says it'll be a crime if he isn't. Al Harrington says it'll smack of a conspiracy. Chris Mullin says there shouldn't even be a question about it.

So why this nagging feeling that Davis is going to get hosed? Probably because he will be. It'll be Baron's best approach to not count on getting on the NBA All-Star Game's West roster, because if and when it doesn't happen, he and the Warriors won't be as disappointed. If it does, well, surprise!

There are too many reasons Davis won't make it to feel comfortable, even if most of them aren't very valid. Let's run through them, if only to brace for the big letdown when final rosters are announced at the end of the month.

He won't be voted in. It's the only sure way to get there. Just ask Tracy McGrady, who'll almost certainly be going as a starter even though he's not deserving this year. McGrady will be riding the Chinese coattail vote for Yao Ming, which most clearly exists. The proof? Houston forward Luis Scola, for crying out loud, has more All-Star votes than Davis.

Too much guard competition. Kobe Bryant is a lock. Add McGrady and that's two guard spots taken up. Steve Nash, a two-time league MVP, isn't going to be left off the roster after missing last year's game with a sore shoulder, even if Davis has had a better year so far. That leaves at least seven players vying for two or three remaining guard spots: Davis, Portland's Brandon Roy, Denver's Allen Iverson, San Antonio's Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker, New Orleans' Chris Paul and Utah's Deron Williams.

The Big Uneasy. This year's host site works against Davis in two ways. First, Paul is very likely going to make it as a hometown pick (that's another guard spot gone) and it probably didn't hurt that he recently had a great game at Golden State. Second, Davis was shipped out of New Orleans in 2005 and viewed by some as a malcontent and a malingerer.

The international factor. David Stern yearns to show off the NBA's world culture in the All-Star Game. Hence, foreign-born players generally get the benefit of the doubt, as evidenced last year when Utah's Mehmet Okur (from Turkey) made it over more deserving candidates. With Canada's Nash, Argentina's Ginobili and France's Parker as competition, Davis might be advised to apply for citizenship to Madagascar or Norway to enhance his chances. L.A. native? How blase.

All-Star Game cred. How does Baron compete with Denver's Iverson, who has played in nine All-Star Games and been named MVP twice? It's not that A.I. isn't deserving this year, either, with a 27-point scoring average that's third-best in the league for a team that has a better record than the Warriors. Iverson is made for the All-Star Game's no-defense shootout, so that's probably another guard spot gone.

Lords of the rings. Titles count in the selection equation, so Parker and Ginobili get more consideration as a result. And Parker will be bringing along Eva Longoria to boot for the network cameramen to ogle. Davis has outplayed Parker twice this season, but he can't beat the trappings of championship clout.

A fresh face needs a space. How can Portland not be rewarded for the bang-up season it's having when not one soul expected it? There is only one obvious candidate: Second-year guard Roy, who's not having as strong a season as Davis but nevertheless has received a ton of run for leading the Blazers out of the wilderness. Roy played in the Rookie Challenge game last year and a promotion is possible. If that happens, Davis is doomed.

Golden State doesn't rate. The Warriors may have captivated the nation in the playoffs last year, but it probably won't play for the All-Star gig. The W's haven't had a legit All-Star since Latrell Sprewell in 1997. Jason Richardson won two Slam Dunk competitions but never got to the big game.

More bigs needed? Six guards made the 16-player West roster last year, but that might not happen this time. With Kevin Garnett moving to the East, the West might have to counter with more front-line players this year to counteract Garnett, Chris Bosh, Dwight Howard and others. That might mean someone like Tyson Chandler or Marcus Camby will usurp one of the wild-card position spots that otherwise might go to Davis.

The best players in a given season often aren't rewarded. Face it, the All-Star Game is a popularity contest, a glamour game for the NBA's most recognizable, marketable and spectacular players. Davis certainly qualifies on the last count, but on the other two fronts doesn't resonate nationally.

Maybe Baron will beat the odds anyway, but don't get your hopes up. He shouldn't, either, just to be on the safe side.