Nov 2, 2007

Predicting Pac-10 always tricky

By Gordon Kass / Daily News Correspondent

In response to a recent column, reader "rkelly1982" wrote, "Get it right next time, use your head, and quit insulting the reader." That colorful e-mail referred to my recent column stating UCLA looked "superb" while he noted the Bruins are very mediocre. I agree, as I was actually stating just that the Bruins' unbeaten-at-that-time Pac-10 record looked "superb," not the squad itself.

But we sportswriters don't always get those predictions and evaluations correct, and this weekend's Pac-10 showdown between Arizona State and Oregon illustrates that perfectly. The Pac-10 preseason poll results had ASU fourth and Oregon sixth. Currently, the Ducks are fourth and Devils sixth but that is in the nation. No one expected this pair to be the top two in the league.

Saturday's battle in Eugene, Ore., may well decide the Pac-10 title. Other teams have a chance, but these two have the best shots and no one saw that coming.

Hot August picks USC, Cal and UCLA have each stumbled badly and are basically out of the mix. Oregon has succeeded with superb play from QB Dennis Dixon and RB Jonathan Stewart. The combo is executing new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly's attack to perfection and is currently ranked fourth in the nation in total offense.

ASU has sparkled with a new coaching approach from veteran Dennis Erickson, in his first season in Tempe. DE's style works on the college level, where he empowers his charges to play hard, free and loose. And they win. An improved Devil defense has also helped immensely.

Last weekend, Oregon nailed a big win, bouncing USC, and ASU did likewise, rocking Cal. Now they meet for a great shot at Roses. Neither I nor anyone else saw this possibility months ago. Of course, that's what makes it all fun. Watching the great battles unfold on the field. ASU and Oregon fighting for the Pac-10 title. Stanford beating USC in L.A. Oregon State surprising Cal. WSU shocking UCLA.

Sorry, rkelly, but one more point about seeing clearly what's going on. Don't take your eyes off those woeful Bruins. Everyone's watching ASU and Oregon, but erratic UCLA still controls its own destiny. It can run the table and reach the Rose Bowl. I certainly don't predict that, but I've been wrong before.



Power Rankings:

1. Oregon (7-1 overall, 4-1 Pac-10; won 24-17 vs. USC): Surprise! It was Duck defense coming through with huge plays (three second-half turnovers) in big win over USC.

2. ASU (8-0, 5-0; won 31-20 vs. Cal): Third time this year Devils trailed by double digits at home and then swamped an opponent. And this was a huge turnaround (see Cal comment below at No. 4).

3. USC (6-2, 3-2; lost 24-17 at Oregon): Sagarin computer ranking has North Dakota State at No. 16 and USC at No. 37.

4. Cal (5-3, 2-3; lost 31-20 at ASU): Bears had 20-7 lead and 234-43 yardage advantage. After that, ASU outscored Cal 24-0 and outgained them 331-100.

5. UCLA (5-3, 4-1; lost 27-7 at WSU): Bruins scored on third play from scrimmage, then were outscored 27-0 and outgained 545-205 by a team coming off a 53-7 loss to Oregon and seven straight Pac-10 losses.

6. Oregon State (5-3, 3-2; won 23-6 vs. Stanford): Beavs had edge in the ground game 173 yards to minus-8, even with star RB Yvenson Bernard out injured all of second half.

7. Arizona (3-6, 2-4; won 48-41 at Washington): QB Willie Tuitama passed for 510 yards as Cats rallied past Dawgs.

8. Washington (2-6, 0-5; lost 55-34 vs. Oregon): Hard to recall that UW was 2-0 with a win over Boise State, and led Ohio State in the second half of third game of year.

9. Stanford (3-5, 2-4; lost 23-6 at Oregon State): Solid year for Jim Harbaugh with three wins - two in Pac-10 - because Cardinal is eighth or worse in all eight conference offensive and defensive stat categories (rushing, passing, total yards, scoring).

10. Washington State (3-5, 1-4; won 27-7 vs. UCLA): RB Dwight Tardy rushed for 214 yards against a solid run defense.



This Weekend's Pics:

Saturday (game times PT):



UCLA at Arizona (12:30 p.m., TV - ABC). Vegas Line: UCLA by 2. Pic: Arizona by 7. AD Dan Guerrero says he'll judge Karl Dorrell by how Bruins finish season. Remaining schedule includes Oregon, ASU and USC, so Bruins better make hay against Wildcats. But can they stop Tuitama's air game?

Washington at Stanford (3:30 p.m., TV - Fox Sports Net). Vegas Line: Washington by 3. Pic: Washington by 8. QB Jake Locker passed for 336 yards and rushed for 157 against Arizona. Unlikely that Stanford defense can slow him down either.

Arizona State at Oregon (3:45 p.m., TV - ESPN). Vegas Line: Oregon by 7. Pic: Oregon by 10. Dixon attacks like Vince Young and Stewart is an elite player too. That pair will cause the Devil defense to finally shake and stumble.

Oregon State at USC (5:00 p.m., TV - ABC). Vegas Line: USC by 15. Pic: USC by 8. Troy may be a bit flat after BCS hopes smashed. And OSU's tough run defense will keep score close.

Washington State at Cal (7:00 p.m., TV - Fox Sports Net). Vegas Line: Cal by 14 1/2. Pic: Cal by 26. Cougs are road weaklings, allowing 42 (Wisconsin), 47 (USC), 48 (Arizona) and 53 (Oregon) this year. The Oskis will have a feast.



E-mail Gordon Kass at gordonkass2@hotmail.com.